Storm scenarios for Jersey, Channel Islands: best case, most likely and worst case wind gusts from four weather models, with the chance of each.
STORM SCENARIOS
BEST · MIDDLE · WORST
Each weather model is run dozens of times from slightly different starting points. This page takes every run for Jersey from ECMWF, GFS, ICON and the UK Met Office and sorts them into best case, middle and worst case gust ranges. A scenario’s chance is the share of runs in it, so the three add up to 100%. Pick a day below.
⚠ Model runs, not an official forecast. For warnings and advice, Jersey Met is the authority — gov.je/weather. In an emergency call 999.
HOW TO USE THIS PAGE① Read all three cards and their chances, not just the worst case.② Storms several days away change — watch how the chances move between updates.③ Dots drifting right (into red and purple) mean a strengthening trend; drifting left means easing.
LOADING THE MODEL RUNS…
RUN TIMES ARE IN UTC (“Z”); ARRIVAL AND NEXT-EXPECTED TIMES ARE JERSEY TIME.